tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25064447.post3362292835206815797..comments2013-09-12T06:30:06.298+02:00Comments on Spain Economy Watch: Will She....Won't She? The Greek Government's "Latin Tango" With The IMFUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25064447.post-90432972076488786762010-01-17T20:23:00.005+01:002010-01-17T20:23:00.005+01:00The collapse of the greek economy can not be ruled...The collapse of the greek economy can not be ruled out. While everybody is fixated in the "sovereing risk" issue ¿what about the health of the greek financial system?<br /><br />Greek banks have bought huge amounts of bonds in recent months, (when their price was substantially higher than now). So they must be sitting on substantial losses. <br /><br />By the way ¿has commercial paper in Greece not fallen in value bis a bis gov. bonds? Bet on that.<br /><br /><br />Suppose the start of problems in a big bank in Greece. Add the devastating effect of an outflow of deposits (much easier in Greece than in Argentina)coupled with a new incrase in sov. risk and you have Argentina in the Aegean Sea in a few weeks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25064447.post-63801934244026271362010-01-17T08:28:48.589+01:002010-01-17T08:28:48.589+01:00I think Spain is actually pretty well positioned i...I think Spain is actually pretty well positioned in green tech (trains, wind power, desalination, solar). These tend to be pretty big ticket items, so it can have a strong effect on the trade deficit.<br /><br />I agree with the previous point that wages here are too low. In many cases, they are too low to attract and keep talented people in the country, and thus put a limit on the industries that could actually help.<br /><br />In addition, with the entire world trying to pursue an export-led recovery at the same time, I don't see much point in trying to compete purely on price with the likes of China, etc.santcugathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03954580358605135521noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25064447.post-37480509257194091372010-01-13T12:55:37.730+01:002010-01-13T12:55:37.730+01:00One of the strongest (if not the strongest) inflac...One of the strongest (if not the strongest) inflacionary forces in Spian is the public sector: taxes, fees (transport), and government-sponsored or related sectors (telecoms, power...). The internal devaluation could and should start there. If a private company´s profits fall, their employees get fired; if public sector revenues fall, their employees don´t get fired, but at least their salaries and overhead expenses should be frozen. It is very difficult to convince a country of wage moderation when public sector wages increased well over CPI last year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25064447.post-63868119405833217662010-01-12T20:51:44.609+01:002010-01-12T20:51:44.609+01:00With wages in Spain already painfully low (particu...With wages in Spain already painfully low (particularly here in Andalucia) just how exactly can Spain internally devalue? Lowering Mayor's salaries aside.<br /><br />Exports of olive oil, Iberico ham, wine, cheese & chickpeas etc surely cannot save this economy. Don't forget the price of oil is gradually creeping up. Will the 50km speed limit finally be a reality on the motorways :)<br /><br />Has modern day Spain ever enjoyed a sustainable growth path?<br /><br />Just how dark an age are you forecasting for Greece & Spain? What are the consequences of what you write for the man in the campo?<br /><br />If Greece & Spain exciting the euro would cause such financial chaos globally, then surely remaining in it will have similar results? Both countries will default...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com